How and Why Millimeter Wave Goes Mainstream

 

I was pessimistic about the adoption of millimeter-wave (mmWave) in smartphones six months ago, and I disagreed with my friends at Qualcomm about whether it would ramp up. I told Qualcomm during the discussion that if big market adoption took place in 2020, I would "eat humble pie".

I'm sitting at the table now and I'm getting ready to have a bite. I have seen some encouraging ecosystem improvements that now make me feel more hopeful. Here's a list of the relevant considerations:

On the adverse side:

There are still technological problems there. The performance of mmWave smartphones is still relatively poor (low uplink power), causing real use difficulties. The issue here is that 5G NR requires channel estimation data in the mmWave bands to be transmitted in the mmWave uplink, not in another band. This system, in other words, needs to be a closed-loop and today the uplink RF front end is too small.

·Propagation is still poor, and penetration will be a problem for indoor users. In certain cases, with attenuation of just around 20-30 dB, a window or single wall may be penetrated. However, also for light building, 30 to 90 dB attenuation would be commonplace. Forget about the metalized glass infiltration in concrete buildings.

Millimeter-wave parts are pricey, adding about 65% to the cost of the RF parts in a smartphone. Three sub-arrays form a standard implementation of mmWave, each of which comprises four dual-polarized antennas, up/down converters, and wideband processing.

· There are still no 'killer apps' that push customers to purchase new gigabit performance phones.

On the advantageous side:

To boost efficiency for indoor users, repeaters, CPEs, and indoor gNodeB infrastructure are coming to market. FCC-certified options from companies such as Pivotalcomm and Morandi have been extensively reviewed by Verizon, and are beginning to be introduced on the market.

Verizon is moving their customers actively toward mmWave mobile. Verizon has, in particular, declined to sell any non-mmWave-capable 5G phones, laptops, PCs, or related devices. By year-end, they have revealed plans for at least 20 computers.

Verizon appears to be subsidizing the mmWave radio's extra expense. For prices comparable to other non-mmWave handsets, they sell 5G mmWave handsets. They do this because fat pipes can provide knowledge at a lower price than slim pipes.

It turns out that the "killer app" is not connected to virtual reality or any other new use case for 5G mmWave. Rather, the need for mobile operators to increase their capacity by a factor of five is clearly the case. So, what fuels the need for 5G mmWave is good old-fashioned video streaming.

So far, all of the above is focused on a single company's announcements: Verizon. But we think Verizon is spearheading a new trend where operators are going to demand mmWave on the network and bear the cost.

mmWave is about to enter the mainstream after 30 years of toiling as a 'niche' market.